“Fear is a man’s best friend” is yet another great John Cale song. Dario Amodei of Anthropic has been listening.
In the Cyberwar arms race, Dario intends to lead, especially in the “scaring the pants off stakes”. There must be an IPO in the offing.
Way back in the day, as an ERP product manager, a moment’s scribble on the back of an envelope revealed the obvious: that off-piste explorations of the process path would lead to an unpleasant demise of reliable functionality. It was too complicated to test everything so just “don’t go there”.
Bill Gates, a past master at legedermain has been playing the game since DOS V1.0, a game that continues to infuriate to this day. In a masterful Twainian twist, (though it is unlikely there have been any royalty payments to the Twain Estate)
he has persuaded his gasping acolytes that beta-testing for free is a privilege (See “The Adventures of Tom Sawyer”).
Dario has amped it up. “Mythos” stalks the earth, remorselessly shining its light into the the murky depths of ancient code to reveal, quoting the Economist “Artificial Intelligence, Mythical Monster April 11th-17th 2026” that “severe vulnerabilities have been found in every major operating system and web browser, including one that had gone undetected for 27 years”.
In other news, there are bugs in software, especially in the dismal outpourings of early internet explorations, as decades of software engineering principles were trashed on the alter of cheap labour in the 1990’s; not an unfamiliar tale.
Simple, complicated and complex – Cybernetic Systems resultant from the dramatic growth in urbanisation and population in Britain during the first half of the 19th Century
The digital computing machine is at the end of a Rogers’ innovation curve. Is “AI” just a last hurrah?
Introduction
In his classic work, (Rogers, 2003), Everett Rogers proposed the non-linearity of innovation adoption and its nature. Multiple examples are quoted including the emergence of the “Internet” up to 2003.
Figure 1. Diffusion of Innovations, Everett Rogers – for our purpose the “Rogers’ curve”
The economist Paul Krugman[1] famously stated that “productivity isn’t everything, but, in the long run, it is almost everything”.
[2]“The reason productivity is so important, Krugman continued, is that “a country’s ability to improve its standard of living over time depends almost entirely on its ability to raise its output per worker”.
From these two notions, it can be conjectured:
An innovation may increase “utility”, that is to say “improve quality of life” to those exposed[3]. A narrow proxy for utility is “productivity” which is an understood measurement in the U.S. and Australia. There are other perspectives on innovation effects e.g. “consumer welfare”[4] but these are out of scope.
Change in utility from an innovation can follow a “future offset” Rogers’ curve.
Within a Rogers’ curve, “fractal” Rogers’ curves may be observed caused by discontinuities in an innovation’s evolution e.g. in a “creative destruction” [5].
In the “late stage” Rogers’ curve, adoption rates can decline and innovations can turn “toxic”, reducing utility. Benefits often accrue early in the cycle and costs are deferred but as use increases, can grow in a non-linear fashion e.g. PFA’s.
“I.T.” including computation and communication began life as an innovation in the late 1940’s.
The innovation of I.T. follows the Rogers’ “curve” and two significant Rogers’ curves can be observed within – from the personal computer “PC” starting in the late 1970’s and the “Internet” revolution born in the late 1980’s.
A third potential significant discontinuity, “AI” as commonly understood, (not as a tool in functional niches), is now observed. The nature of this discontinuity and its effects on utility are as yet unknown.
In this analysis, the “PC”, “Internet” and “AI” discontinuities are compared and considered within the I.T. Rogers’ curve.
The “PC”
The dramatically reduced cost of computing power though the 60’s and 70’s (as illustrated by Gordon Moore’s misnamed but pertinent “Moore’s Law”[6]) lead to the emergence of “garage band” entrepreneurs e.g. Microsoft, Apple that sought to deliver to a much broader community the facilities for computation, hitherto the preserve of the “Big” – government, corporations, military. Concurrent developments in software functionality enabled by cheaper computing power e.g. the “GUI” would accelerate the innovation cycle.
What were the effects?
1. Industry disruption; the I.T. industry, dominated by mainframe e.g. Amdahl, Sperry-Univac etc. and mini-computer players e.g. Data General, Digital Equipment was transformed by a convulsion so violent that eventually even IBM was brought low. Hardware and operating systems were commodified and de facto standardised; “Open Source” e.g. Linux emerged. This was an “asset light” and democratising revolution.
2. A mania? The 1980’s saw, to quote the Federal Reserve[7]:
“The first contemporary global financial crisis unfolded on October 19, 1987, a day known as “Black Monday,” when the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 22.6 percent.”
However, this was not an event associated particularly with investment in the I.T. sector; other more significant forces were at play including the enablement of automated trading by cheaper computing power where individual interests combined to generate a vortex of market decline[8].
3. Utility; The “PC” enabled businesses to dramatically reduce the costs of their non-value adding work. New direct sales and marketing processes enabled by low-cost data management software enabled higher productivity in the delivery of targeted goods and services without the need for expensive “mass media”. The personalisation of marketing and media had begun.
However, in 1987, Robert Solow[9] remarked “You can see the computer age everywhere but in the productivity statistics”, leading to the term “Solow Paradox” where high levels of investment in digital technology do not lead to immediate economic benefit. In fact, during the 80’s economic growth in the U.S. declined.
Explanations might include:
Industry disruption is expensive and often resisted; a period of economic readjustment was necessary when generalised benefits were hard to discern as productive assets were dismantled and created a new in other configurations.
Lags from inertia and “frictions” applied to expenditure; capital equipment demands adaptation to be productive. It is conceivable that material productivity improvements were only realised when intra-entity “PC networking”, in support of commodified business management applications, was enabled.
The rise of the service sector as a proportion of the economy, in some ways a result of the reduced cost of computing power, in which it is difficult to measure “productivity”.
Difficulties in accounting for the new technology: hardware, software and services which is still a matter of debate and amendment by authorities[10].
The “Internet”
“Big” military, industry and academic networks had been in situ since the 60’s (Rogers, 2003) and a functional example of the “Internet” extant in France (“Minitel”[11]) since 1980, so the “Internet” concept was familiar. The reducing cost of I.T. equipment and “open standards” enabled the deployment of a commoditised tool for electronic communication. It can be argued that the emergence of the “Internet” within CERN itself followed a Rogers’ curve (Berners-Lee, 1999). Great hopes were vested in this technology for human advancement, not least by Berners-Lee himself[12]. In February 1996, the Section 630[13] ruling, confirmed the belief that new voices should emerge to challenge the existing political and media status quo. The Wall had fallen.
As per DeLong (DeLong, 2000), the “Solow Paradox” appeared to be resolved in the early to mid-nineties. DeLong made the following remark:
” The almost inevitable conclusion is – as Oliner and Sichel (2000) have argued most powerfully – that the computer sector has in the past decade come of age as a macroeconomic factor. The productivity speed-up is due primarily to events in information technology.”
DeLong predicted a continued realisation of net benefit from I.T. investment both within and outside the U.S. economy in the following decade.
Productivity in the U.S. and Australia
DeLong was apparently justified by the U.S. in the 2000’s. The factors that cause “productivity” change cannot be easily identified or quantified {“correlation is not causation” etc.) but it appears that cheap, integrated computing power had a very positive influence up to 2007.
Remarkably, this improvement in utility occurred after the bursting of the e-commerce bubble in 2000 when as The Economist[14] remarks: “The Super Bowl of 2000 passed into market folklore as having epitomised internet-stock mania; no fewer than 17 dotcom firms paid millions of dollars each for 30 second advertising slots. Weeks later share prices fell into a brutal bear market”.
It appears that in the U.S. a Rogers’ curve for I.T. was observed from the late 1940’s. Early adoption by the “Big” – government, the military, was followed by a period of quietude (Only seven of the Ferranti Mark 1 machines were sold in the 1950’s[15]) as underlying tectonics realigned. The “PC” and “Internet” revolutions, themselves observed as “fractal” Rogers’ curves, ignited a “Take-Off” in the late 1980’s that continued until circa 2007. As conjectured. utility from I.T. as expressed by productivity seems to have followed an aligned and offset Rogers’ curve from adoption.
A similar pattern in Australia to the U.S. is observed where it appears that a combination of factors, arguably including the dividend of cheap computing power utilisation resulted in significant improvements in utility during the decades around the turn of the century.
The RBA (R.B.A., 2025) comments:
“For example, labour productivity (output per hour worked) currently sits around its 2016 level, whereas it grew very strongly from the mid-1990s to mid-2000s.”
The Data-Processing Engine
All good things come to an end as would be expected by reference to the Rogers’ curve, its extrapolation to utility and the nature of the data-processing engine.
Limits are reached – there is only a certain speed at which received information can be wisely processed and I.T. assets “rot” almost immediately from their deployment as changes are made to functionality and configuration; increasing monies are spent on the maintenance of existing systems, not the implementation of innovation. Network effects only go so far, “legacy” and barriers to entry emerge.
Business practices and processes that were once performed at very low levels of “friction” are increasingly burdened with bureaucratic interventions (often of dubious merit and ironically only possible because of I.T.) and bad actors.
Take cybersecurity, which although estimated[16] at only a fractional percentage of Australian GDP (0.04%) expenditure is nevertheless a significant impost on this economy. This technology often reduces the operational efficiency of processes either directly or indirectly and is a cost, either in I.T. system maintenance or an insurance against contingent risk.
“AI”
“Social media” has been extremely disruptive in its effects since the late 2000’s though it does not appear at first glance to have improved utility either in the U.S. or Australia[17]. Will “AI” change the effect of I.T. investment?
Consider “AI” versus the “PC” and the “Internet”:
A tenor of “fear and loathing”[18] is abroad, not hope and optimism as previously observed. This is evidenced by:
“AI” as a justification for white-collar work redundancies e.g. the C.B.A, Block and Atlassian[19][20].
Evidence of exploitative work practices supporting the provision of “AI” (Muldoon, 2024).
The emblematic lawsuit between Open-AI and its partner Microsoft[21] and the New York Times regarding the alleged theft of intellectual property from that publisher.
Top-down, scare-tactic, propaganda by “AI” players governments – “LinkedIn” et al.
Social unrest around the technology and its perceived consequences.[22]
“Asset-heavy”, not “Asset-Light”; “AI” data-processing is extremely complex and energy-intensive therefore expensive and condensed, the opposite of the “PC” and “Internet” proposition, even if the driver, cheaper unit processing power, is the same. To quote The Economist[23] again “Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Microsoft have said they will spend US660bn on “AI” in 2026, staggering sums.” According to the IEA, electricity supply for “AI” is planned to grow in six years from 460 TWH to 1000 TWH, circa 3% of total present global generating capacity[24]. Further study is advised to determine the viability of this proposition.
Markets remain sceptical of “Big Tech” expenditure on “AI” and uncertain of valuations[25]. They have not afforded entrants the euphoria of the dot-com era[26][27]. Other factors, including circular financing[28] by some “AI” players may have brought some caution to the table. Markets have punished both the work-platform firms e.g. Atlassian, ServiceNow and their antagonistic “AI” entities on the same day.[29] The primary characteristic of “bubbles” (Shiller, 2008), “social contagion” is not yet on vivid display. The forthcoming IPOs of Open-AI, Anthropic and Space-X may tell a different story.
The Thrill has Gone
The I.T. Rogers’ curve. is now eighty-years old, an aging boomer whose glory days are long gone as measured by the conjectured proxy for utility. Will “AI” re-energise the delivery of utility from I.T. on its own Rogers’ curve?
The following, based on a comparison with the “PC” and the “Internet” suggest not:
The “vibe” of the “PC” and “Internet” revolutions is markedly absent.
intense concentration of the assets required for “AI” deployment within an existing circle of agency, the empire[30] of “Big Tech” and its totalitarian peers.
The stated aim which appears to be the reduction of utility, “Productivity” is to be improved by the reduction of cost through increased unemployment and diminished freedom. The mechanism? The theft of human expertise using the pernicious drug of convenience.
Markets are ambivalent.
With luck, uncertain and trimmed by the Iran conflict, they will decide it is not worth it.
Bibliography
Berners-Lee, T. (1999). Weaving the Web. Orion Business Books.
DeLong, J. B. (2000). https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/confs/2000/delong.html. Resreve Bank of Australia.
Muldoon, Graham and Cant. (2024). Feeding the Machine: The Hidden Human Labour Powering AI. Bloomsbury.
[3] “Exposed” describes a multitude of personal and organisational experiences. Benefits and costs will not accrue equally across the “exposed” but a generalised improvement in utility could be said to apply when for “most of the people, most of the time”.
[4] https://conversableeconomist.com/2021/02/24/robert-j-gordon-thoughts-on-long-run-us-productivity-growth/ and The Rise and Fall of American Growth, Robert J. Gordon, 2016 ISBN 9780691175805
Cybernetic effects from the introduction of an Integrated Development Platform (“IDP”) at the CBA offer further promise of productivity improvements.
In this fourth conversation, Des and Gareth consider the technology categories and specific applications required to deploy “platform engineering” in DevOps at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia (a highly visible, regulated institution).
Bullet points?
Commodification of Regulation in an “Opinionated” platform.
CPS 230 – What is your vendor exposure? An articulation of good practice for buyers of I.T. services.
Cloud – benefits, costs, P/L and Balance Sheet. Beware the concentration.
The emergance of an iterative development process from new deployment efficiencies.
What does this mean for the front-end inputs? Systems can change Systems in a cybernetic feedback effect.
Media
Vision delayed a tad in the recording below . . .
Des Seeley and Gareth Davies discuss the technology of the Integrated Development Platform “IDP” at the CBA (Video and Audio)
Looking for clues in Python Programming Productivity – “AI” Sludge vs. Clear Exposition.
Python Documentation
There’s abstruse and incomprehensible and surely most formal Python documentation for the average business technician/knowledge-worker/hacker/scribbler/programmer meanders somewhere in between. Communities emerged to cope StackOverflow, Youtube etc. No “RTFM” for these guys and gals, more “DIY”. Ten years ago, quite a shock for a geezer thrown in to the pool of methods and objects. Where’s the register? And pythonistas were you taught not to comment your code.
Keep it Simple Stupid (“KISS”)
A golden rule of computer science etc. used to be “KISS”. Was this ever a rule, more an observation? Like Moore’s Law a bit of a misnomer.
Assume “KISS” is still a rule (like “GIGO”).
If “KISS” is a rule does “AI” simplify?
Like for example, a Youtube video by somebody who, with clear and concise explanation, very easily makes things simple. Somebody who knows how to educate. Corey Schafer that’s you.
Or a well-written note that matches the “what” with the “how”, featuring more than the occasional snippet.
Productivity doing hard things will not be improved by throwing more at the wall, the default response of an “AI” prompt.
Perhaps we should be grateful. Any idiot can make the complex complicated. Making the complex simple requires a mind.
A recent visit to the National Museum Australia and a discussion on the history of the Pyramids recalled the emergence of iterative software development methods in the 1990’s
Muttaburrasaurus
Anywhere between 100 million and 110 million years old. Not only is 100 million years a completely unimaginable period of time but the variation in the measurement is also unimaginable. There is a ten per cent or so variation in the value depending on how calculated which is of course very significant in itself but it is an enormous period of time. What on earth does 10 million years mean?
The difficulty of the human conceptualism of time was further illustrated in a discussion lead by Associate Professor Ash Lenton in the Masters of Applied Cybernetics course at the ANU, 26th February 2026, considering “Languages and Perspectives”.
The subject under discussion was “The Great Pyramid of Giza – Pyramid Tomb of the Pharaoh Khufu” c. 2,600 BCE – that is to say around four and a half thousand years ago. Who would claim to truly know the consequence of this observation?
Not those it seems responsible for the crazy fictions about “Aliens” or at least those that wish to transmute breezy entertainment into serious explanatory narratives.
Scholarship as described by Prof. Lenton revealed the iterative refinement of the “Pyramid” from the Shaft & Chamber Tombs, Xemxija, Malta 6000 – 4000 BCE through various forms of increasing engineering sophistication and stylistic refinement including:
Mastabas, Tarkhan c. 3100 BCE
Step Pyramids, Saqqara c. 2630 BCE
Step Tombs, Saqqara c. 2700 BCE
to the familiar manifestation at Giza. The time taken for this process is at least circa 2,500 years given the difficulty in the measurement of building age; staggering.
In the late 1990’s, an advocate for DSDM a formalised iterative development methodology, Paul Taylor then of British Telecom, while visiting Sydney, Australia used the illustration of “Going to the Moon” to describe the benefits of the approach. His story started with the Montgolfier Brothers in 1783 with their Hot-air Balloon and ended with Neil Armstrong aboard Apollo 11 in 1969 a period of nearly 200 years.
Montgolfier Brothers in 1783 – first steps to the moon
Neil Armstrong in 1969 – “One small step for a man, one giant leap for Mankind”
What of course is extraordinary is the compression of the evolution of innovation – from thousands to hundreds of years.
Will future people’s regard the claims for space flight as far-fetched, their perspective misled by the astonishing effect of iteration through time, their attention attenuated into the millisecond life-cycle scale of digital transformation?
In our third iTWire research (27th February 2026) conversation with Desmond Seeley, Delivery Executive at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia #CBA, the nitty-gritty of Digital Transformation in the DevOps function of a complex institution is considered.
In our previous conversations, the “Why” and “What” of Digital Transformation in DevOps was discussed. At the #CBA, “Platform Engineering” has been identified as the required solution, based in part on the Google Model a significant extrapolation of the “portable” operating system.
In this conversation, Des describes in detail the juggling exercise required to align a number of separate initiatives and priorities, perhaps half a dozen along a common path….and keep them there.
Many of the ideas will be familiar though possibly under-appreciated in the zeitgeist and can be generally applied – iterative development, modular component delivery, identification of an early-adopter (“guinea-pig” or “champion” ?), marketing and selling the approach, essential where there is an element of “deferred gratification” where funds are allocated to the development of an “productive asset”, an engine that will deliver improved future results.
How do you mesh the gears?
Note for listeners and viewers – momentary glitch between 8.00 and 9.00 minutes in after which normal service is resumed !
Has the addition of “AI” engagements improved the customer experience? Is the Raspberry Pi cooked?
The “AI” Mercury Switch at ii-net
How’s your broadband going? If you are with ii-net in Australia you’ve probably found that if it isn’t going too well then when you call them up, instead of the simple pressing of a few buttons to get you to some one who has a good idea what’s going on (usually the case it has to be said) there is a new intervention: an emulation of a hapless adolescent posing the question “how can I help?”
In a sentence.
Problem? Even if you could construct a reasonable and publishable sentence to describe your current state of NBN despair, you cannot make yourself understood as the mobile phone no longer carries a signal of sufficient clarity to convey a message of any substance so the meaning is lost.
And time wasted. Why?
An agent at ii-net and I were having a laugh about my wasted time and he suggested that the “AI” intervention was needed to meet the requirements of the young. After all, the young are blessed with much time, though as Mose Allison implied perhaps little else.
The Irritating Avatar
Hold on, what’s going on? Crafting is going on and a strong recommendation is the “30 Days as Lost in Space” kit from Crafting Table. As stated on the tin, perfect for beginners.
What however is this that stands before me? An intervention by a curious being seemingly half way between everywhere; red dwarfed by Youtube. Is this “thing” necessary or a distraction from the tasks engaged?
Try out the kit and you be the judge.
Raspberry Pi or Pickle
The squeezed middle is a painful place to be.
Total cost of purchase of a working pi?
keyboard, mouse, sd card and monitor is getting for four hundred Australian bucks. A fully configured low-spec laptop with windows and office price in fact for which one can grab a full-fat python for free.
The unboxing wasn’t great; screwholes but no screws and the cooling fan connector with the power on the board was a bit fiddly. And then it broke or least the connection didn’t conduct; No fan.
The OS download was OK but then the monitor went into sleep mode and wouldn’t wake up either with ubunto or raspberry os. What to do? Lots of online guidance that assumed prior knowledge lead to a few changes to the config.txt with notepad and a re-boot. No luck. Another monitor, I don’t think so as the one in use displayed switch-on diagnostics just fine and worked with the laptop. It’s not worth the money.
To program? Back to the laptop,
The Heath Robinson hack appeal of the pi still attracts but maybe, like many artefacts and initiatives in the technology world, commodification has come for its lunch.
